For long-standing Tory supporters, the outlook has been bleak for quite some time, and it has only worsened since the election announcement. The campaign is being dubbed as the “worst ever”, especially following the prime minister’s widely criticised decision to cut short his D-Day commemorations.

Leading pollster Sir John Curtice has declared there is a 99pc certainty of a Labour victory in the upcoming election. Meanwhile, Westminster is buzzing with anticipation for the “crossover” moment when Reform UK overtakes the Conservatives in the polls.

The party is reportedly “heading for extinction”. Like many Conservatives, I am dismayed not only by the incompetence of the campaign, but also by the disconnect between Conservatism and the Government’s actual policies.

Fourteen years in power have left Britain “over-governed, over-spent, over-taxed, over-borrowed” – to borrow a phrase from Sir Keith Joseph in 1976 (during a Labour Government).

The party should return to core Conservative principles, where the state is kept small, and family, education and community are highly valued. Citizens should be encouraged and empowered to shape their own destinies.

We should champion entrepreneurship, innovation and risk-taking – rewarding excellence, and ensuring that regulations are practical and sensible. There has been lots of talk along these lines but little, if any, action.

While the current government has undoubtedly faced significant challenges, there is no justification for deviating so significantly from its stated principles. The glaring contradiction between advocating for low taxes while imposing the highest overall tax burden in over 70 years is just one prominent example.

Many of the UK’s challenges are shared with other developed nations, including an ageing population, significant fiscal debt, high healthcare demand, border control challenges, elevated living expenses, persistent lockdown repercussions, cultural conflicts, the shift towards renewable energy and readiness for an AI-driven future.

However, other countries appear to be managing these challenges more effectively.

America’s economy has been performing well, and high-quality healthcare is readily accessible in many European countries. Meanwhile, Britain faces specific challenges, many of which have troubled us for decades: poor public services, regional inequalities, scarce and expensive childcare and a shortage of affordable housing.

As Nigel Farage stated when announcing his election bid and leadership of Reform, “nothing works” – and we all know it. Farage emphasised another clear point – bold action is needed.

At this pivotal moment in our nation’s history, nothing should be considered “too difficult”. In this context, the Conservative election manifesto seems to be merely a collection of tactical measures.

What we need is a comprehensive strategy that provides a clear vision of how Britain will look in 10 or 20 years, aligning with the calls from this newspaper’s editors for a coherent narrative.

Here are a few thoughts. It’s by no means an exhaustive list, just a taste of what’s needed.

Education

The future economic growth of Britain depends on equipping the next generation with skills relevant to the world a decade or two from now. A smart, forward-looking education strategy should prioritise the humanities and creative arts, as artificial intelligence is expected to dominate many other fields.

Prioritising life skills in education, such as financial literacy and promoting apprenticeships, is essential. Students need to be taught how to create business plans, and teachers need to be prepared to keep up with a rapidly evolving world – and appreciated for their efforts.

Modernising teacher training is imperative. Despite financial education being part of the curriculum, my children have not received it at school. Teachers admit they lack the necessary skills.

University funding also needs a revamp. While Britain still offers some of the world’s finest higher education, the current funding model is unstable.

If our young people are not being prepared for the world of 2035 and beyond, neither is Britain.

Tax

Recently, I had the chance to spend an evening with economist Arthur Laffer, renowned for the Laffer Curve he introduced in the 1970s. This curve illustrates the trade-off between tax rates and tax revenue. 

It’s quite straightforward. If people are taxed at 100pc of their income, they have no incentive to earn, leading to zero tax revenue – just like it would be at a 0pc tax rate. The ideal tax rate lies somewhere in between. Right now, with tax burdens at their highest in 70 years, we are far from that optimal point.

The manifesto’s promises to reduce National Insurance, especially for the self-employed, and to eliminate stamp duty for first-time homebuyers are steps in the right direction, but again not part of a coherent narrative.

There were notable oversights, such as scrapping stamp duty on share trading (which could practically fund itself), removing inheritance tax and lowering corporation tax.

These measures – even if planned over time – would enhance the UK’s reputation as a leading financial hub and a business-friendly environment. They would also facilitate intergenerational wealth transfer. We need all these things to create the vision of a prospering Britain, and to reflect Conservatism.

Healthcare

Britain’s population is ageing, and in a decade’s time, the demand for high-quality healthcare will be even more significant. The Conservatives should develop a budgeted, practical strategy to address the pressures on the healthcare system, rather than leaving it to the Labour Party or Reform UK to overhaul the funding model.

Farage mentions the French model, while I have in-laws in Germany who benefit from a hybrid private/public healthcare system. They are pleased with the services, can schedule appointments quickly, and see a doctor in person. Their doctors are well-respected and better paid than ours.

Piecemeal interventions and occasional funding won’t solve the deep-rooted issues in our system. What’s needed is a thoughtful strategy.

An increased supply of quality healthcare, including improved mental health care, will help those with long-term illnesses recover, enhancing their health and happiness while reducing their financial dependence on the state.

If we can develop a sustainable funding model for healthcare, it can be extended to other essential services as well, helping to address the issues with water companies and trains.

Family

Bizarrely, this is a tiptoe-around policy area for the Conservatives, with a few brave notable exceptions like Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates.

A happy family life is fundamental for most of us, perhaps even more so in our increasingly self-centred world, and this will only become more evident in the next decade. It should be a given that family-friendly tax policies and a robust childcare strategy (addressing the lack of childcare places as well as the costs) are prioritised.

Many people still desire to have children but are often discouraged by financial constraints, causing them to postpone starting a family, or to have fewer children than they wish.

An increasing number are choosing not to have children, a personal decision that is further influenced by the prevalent sense of pessimism and has potential long-term economic implications for the country.

Immigration

This has indeed been a significant concern for the current government, although their efforts have yet to yield substantial results.

As a matter of principle, withdrawing the UK from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is crucial as it allows us to have control over our own decisions. These decisions should be made by a dedicated immigration task force separate from the Home Office, possessing the necessary expertise and influence.

For example, the Australian Border Force operates as a distinct entity focusing on immigration and customs. Its mission is “to protect Australia’s borders and facilitate legitimate travel and trade”.

Although Australia’s circumstances differ from ours, convening experts to address immigration issues is likely to yield better outcomes than assigning generalists to handle random ideas.

Law enforcement and defence

My local Conservative MP’s re-election leaflet promises to deploy an additional police officer on the streets in my neighbourhood, where criminal and threatening behaviour is a daily concern.

Just last Sunday afternoon, a drunk woman spat at my 15-year-old daughter and then attempted to follow her into the house while yelling abuse. I felt there was no point in calling the police.

While I welcome the manifesto’s pledge to deliver 8,000 more full-time police officers, there is no consistent strategy for tackling crime in a way that could help more of us feel less anxious in our own streets.

I am equally perplexed about the stance on defence spending. Having steadily reduced this in real terms since 2010 to a low point in 2016-17 before gradually increasing spending again, it is still below the 2010 level – but the manifesto plans “full funding” by 2030.

Both law enforcement and defence should be consistent Conservative priorities, not switched off and on. 

Whether it’s a total calamity or not as bad as expected for the Conservatives on July 4, there must be no glossing over the litany of mistakes. Whoever emerges as the next leader must articulate a vision that provides a cohesive narrative and instil confidence in the party’s ability to govern effectively once again.

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